Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultEngland to win ✗68% · @1.53
Double chanceEngland or draw ✗88% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 4.94
England vs Japan preview and prediction
The match
The Friendlies sees England take on Japan on Tuesday 31 March, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Wembley Stadium.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.6 for England and 0.5 for Japan. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 58% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: England 68%, draw 20%, Japan 12%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 – 58% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.33, above our fair price of 1.29, so there is value in it. Predicted score: England 1–0 Japan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
England68%fair 1.48 · @1.53
Draw20%fair 4.97 · @3.95
Japan12%fair 8.26 · @6.00
2.07Expected goals
1.61England xG
0.46Japan xG
51%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
2–016%
0–013%
1–19%
3–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: England 1.6 – 0.5 Japan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
England to win✗
68%
1.48
1.53
Double chance
England or draw✗
88%
1.14
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.85 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT England / FT England✗
41%
2.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
4.94
–
Form
England – last 1
D
27 Mar
vs Uruguay
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Japan
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between England and Japan.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win England vs Japan?
On our numbers England have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Japan 12%.
How many goals will there be in England vs Japan?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for England vs Japan?
Our predicted score is England 1–0 Japan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is England vs Japan?
England vs Japan (Friendlies) kicks off on Tuesday 31 March 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Wembley Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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