Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction & analysis
67%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 56% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlianza Atletico to win ✓47% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.76
Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso preview and prediction
The match
The CONMEBOL Sudamericana sees Alianza Atletico take on Deportivo Garcilaso on Wednesday 4 March, kicking off at 03:00 (WAT) at Estadio Mansiche.
Form guide
Alianza Atletico's last 3: DDD Most recently they drew with ADT 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Alianza Atletico and 1.2 for Deportivo Garcilaso. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 56%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.20 – 56% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.55, above our fair price of 1.50, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Alianza Atletico 1–1 Deportivo Garcilaso. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alianza Atletico47%fair 2.15 · @2.15
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.15
Deportivo Garcilaso29%fair 3.49 · @3.45
2.58Expected goals
1.36Alianza Atletico xG
1.23Deportivo Garcilaso xG
56%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Alianza Atletico 1.4 – 1.2 Deportivo Garcilaso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Atletico to win✓
47%
2.15
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
2.20 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.55
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.14
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Atletico / FT Alianza Atletico✓
23%
4.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.76
–
Form
Alianza Atletico – last 3
DDD
27 Feb
vs ADT
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Cienciano
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Alianza Lima
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Deportivo Garcilaso – last 2
LL
28 Feb
vs Cienciano
2–3
L
23 Feb
@ UCV Moquegua
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Atletico and Deportivo Garcilaso.
What is the prediction for Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
On our numbers Alianza Atletico have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Deportivo Garcilaso 29%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Our predicted score is Alianza Atletico 1–1 Deportivo Garcilaso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mansiche.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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