Value bet: A. Italiano to win @ 3.15 – our chance 34% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultCobresal to win ✗39% · @2.22
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.49
Cobresal vs A. Italiano preview and prediction
The match
Cobresal host A. Italiano in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Wednesday 4 March, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
Form guide
Cobresal's last 3: LDW Most recently they lost to D. La Serena 0–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
A. Italiano's last 3: LWL Most recently they lost to Union La Calera 0–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Cobresal and 1.1 for A. Italiano. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cobresal 39%, draw 28%, A. Italiano 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.83.
Value angle: A. Italiano to win at 3.15 – 34% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Cobresal 1–1 A. Italiano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cobresal39%fair 2.60 · @2.22
Draw28%fair 3.60 · @3.30
A. Italiano34%fair 2.97 · @3.15
2.32Expected goals
1.20Cobresal xG
1.12A. Italiano xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Cobresal 1.2 – 1.1 A. Italiano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cobresal to win✗
39%
2.60
2.22
Double chance
Either team to win✗
72%
1.39
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cobresal / FT Cobresal✗
21%
4.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.49
–
Form
Cobresal – last 3
LDW
27 Feb
vs D. La Serena
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Concepción
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs U. Catolica
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
A. Italiano – last 3
LWL
28 Feb
@ Union La Calera
0–3
L
22 Feb
vs Everton de Vina
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Nublense
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cobresal and A. Italiano.
What is the prediction for Cobresal vs A. Italiano?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cobresal vs A. Italiano?
On our numbers Cobresal have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 28% and A. Italiano 34%.
How many goals will there be in Cobresal vs A. Italiano?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cobresal vs A. Italiano?
Our predicted score is Cobresal 1–1 A. Italiano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Cobresal vs A. Italiano?
Cobresal vs A. Italiano (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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