Value bet: Sportivo Italiano to win @ 2.62 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSportivo Italiano to win ✓42% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓70% · fair 1.43
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.41
Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano preview and prediction
The match
Argentino Quilmes host Sportivo Italiano in the Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday 29 August, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Barranca Quilmena stadium. Argentino Quilmes are 17th with 47 points from 42 games (in the bottom half), while Sportivo Italiano sit 3rd on 72 points (in the top four). A gap of 25 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Argentino Quilmes's last 5: LLWDD Most recently they lost to San Martín Burzaco 2–3 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sportivo Italiano's last 5: LLWWD Most recently they lost to Defensores Unidos 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.9 for Argentino Quilmes and 1.1 for Sportivo Italiano. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Argentino Quilmes 31%, draw 27%, Sportivo Italiano 42%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Sportivo Italiano to win at 2.62 – 42% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.60. Predicted score: Argentino Quilmes 0–1 Sportivo Italiano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Argentino Quilmes31%fair 3.18 · @2.90
Draw27%fair 3.77 · @2.50
Sportivo Italiano42%fair 2.38 · @2.62
1.91Expected goals
0.86Argentino Quilmes xG
1.05Sportivo Italiano xG
47%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–015%
1–113%
1–013%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Argentino Quilmes 0.9 – 1.1 Sportivo Italiano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sportivo Italiano to win✓
42%
2.38
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.36
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.41
–
Form
Argentino Quilmes – last 6
LLWDDD
25 Aug
@ San Martín Burzaco
2–3
L
22 Aug
vs Villa San Carlos
0–2
L
16 Aug
@ Liniers
1–0
W
8 Aug
vs Real Pilar
0–0
D
1 Aug
@ UAI Urquiza
0–0
D
25 Jul
vs Villa Dalmine
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Sportivo Italiano – last 6
LLWWDD
25 Aug
vs Defensores Unidos
0–2
L
21 Aug
@ Comunicaciones
0–1
L
15 Aug
vs Dock Sud
4–0
W
9 Aug
@ Deportivo Merlo
4–0
W
1 Aug
vs Deportivo Camioneros
1–1
D
25 Jul
@ Ituzaingó
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Argentino Quilmes and Sportivo Italiano.
What is the prediction for Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano?
On our numbers Argentino Quilmes have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Sportivo Italiano 42%.
How many goals will there be in Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano?
Our predicted score is Argentino Quilmes 0–1 Sportivo Italiano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano?
Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Barranca Quilmena stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
