Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Malacateco to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMalacateco to win ✗60% · @1.95
Double chanceMalacateco or draw ✗83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.76
Malacateco vs Mixco preview and prediction
The match
Mixco travel to face Malacateco in the Liga Nacional on Sunday 15 March (02:00 WAT). Malacateco are 10th with 22 points from 22 games (in the bottom three), while Mixco sit 3rd on 36 points (in the top four). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Malacateco's last 5: LLDLD Most recently they lost to Marquense 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Mixco's last 5: WDDLL Most recently they beat Municipal 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Malacateco and 0.7 for Mixco. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Malacateco 60%, draw 23%, Mixco 17%.
Safer route: Malacateco or draw (83%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Malacateco to win at 1.95 – 60% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Malacateco or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Malacateco 1–0 Mixco. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Malacateco60%fair 1.66 · @1.95
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.00
Mixco17%fair 5.94 · @3.60
2.43Expected goals
1.68Malacateco xG
0.75Mixco xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Malacateco 1.7 – 0.7 Mixco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Malacateco to win✗
60%
1.66
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Malacateco or draw✗
83%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Malacateco / FT Malacateco✗
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.76
–
Form
Malacateco – last 6
LLDLDW
8 Mar
@ Marquense
0–1
L
4 Mar
@ Comunicaciones
2–3
L
1 Mar
vs Antigua GFC
2–2
D
24 Feb
@ Cobán Imperial
0–2
L
21 Feb
vs Achuapa
1–1
D
19 Feb
vs Xelajú
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Mixco – last 5
WDDLL
4 Mar
vs Municipal
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Aurora
1–1
D
26 Feb
vs Mictlán
2–2
D
23 Feb
@ Xelajú
1–2
L
20 Feb
@ Marquense
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
80%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Malacateco and Mixco.
Our pick is Malacateco or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Malacateco vs Mixco?
On our numbers Malacateco have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mixco 17%.
How many goals will there be in Malacateco vs Mixco?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Malacateco vs Mixco?
Our predicted score is Malacateco 1–0 Mixco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Malacateco vs Mixco?
Malacateco vs Mixco (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
