Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
2
Value bet: Mixco to win @ 3.40 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAurora to win ✗42% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.42
Aurora vs Mixco preview and prediction
The match
Aurora host Mixco in the Liga Nacional on Sunday 1 March, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estadio Guillermo Slowing. Aurora are 11th with 20 points from 22 games (in the bottom three), while Mixco sit 3rd on 36 points (in the top four). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Aurora's last 4: DWLW Most recently they drew with Marquense 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mixco's last 3: DLL Most recently they drew with Mictlán 2–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Aurora arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Aurora and 1.1 for Mixco. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Aurora 42%, draw 24%, Mixco 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Mixco to win at 3.40 – 34% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Aurora 1–1 Mixco. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aurora42%fair 2.36 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @2.85
Mixco34%fair 2.97 · @3.40
2.37Expected goals
1.28Aurora xG
1.10Mixco xG
55%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Aurora 1.3 – 1.1 Mixco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aurora to win✗
42%
2.36
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aurora / FT Aurora✗
23%
4.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.42
–
Form
Aurora – last 4
DWLW
26 Feb
@ Marquense
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Comunicaciones
2–0
W
19 Feb
@ Antigua GFC
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Cobán Imperial
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Mixco – last 3
DLL
26 Feb
vs Mictlán
2–2
D
23 Feb
@ Xelajú
1–2
L
20 Feb
@ Marquense
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aurora and Mixco.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Aurora vs Mixco?
On our numbers Aurora have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mixco 34%.
How many goals will there be in Aurora vs Mixco?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aurora vs Mixco?
Our predicted score is Aurora 1–1 Mixco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Aurora vs Mixco?
Aurora vs Mixco (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Guillermo Slowing.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
