Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultTristan Suarez to win ✓59% · @1.73
Double chanceTristan Suarez or draw ✓86% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓24% · fair 4.17
Tristan Suarez vs Patronato preview and prediction
The match
Tristan Suarez host Patronato in the Primera Nacional on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio 20 de Octubre. Tristan Suarez are 1st with 64 points from 36 games (top of the table), while Patronato sit 16th on 38 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 26 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tristan Suarez's last 5: DDWDD Most recently they drew with Colegiales 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game. 6 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Patronato's last 5: WLWDD Most recently they beat Club Atlético Güemes 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 31 May 2026, finished Patronato 1–1 Tristan Suarez.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.6 goals: 1.2 for Tristan Suarez and 0.4 for Patronato. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 77% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Tristan Suarez to win – a 59% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.69, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tristan Suarez 1–0 Patronato. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tristan Suarez59%fair 1.69 · @1.73
Draw27%fair 3.69 · @3.00
Patronato14%fair 7.27 · @5.50
1.64Expected goals
1.24Tristan Suarez xG
0.40Patronato xG
42%Both score
23%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–024%
0–019%
2–015%
1–110%
0–18%
3–06%
From our goals model: Tristan Suarez 1.2 – 0.4 Patronato expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Tristan Suarez vs Patronato?
Our pick is Tristan Suarez to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Tristan Suarez vs Patronato?
On our numbers Tristan Suarez have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Patronato 14%.
How many goals will there be in Tristan Suarez vs Patronato?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 23% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tristan Suarez vs Patronato?
Our predicted score is Tristan Suarez 1–0 Patronato, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Tristan Suarez vs Patronato?
Tristan Suarez vs Patronato (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 20 de Octubre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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