Value bet: Quilmes to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico DE Rafaela to win ✓39% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓73% · fair 1.37
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15% · fair 6.47
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes preview and prediction
The match
The Primera Nacional sees Atletico DE Rafaela take on Quilmes on Saturday 17 October, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT) at Estadio Nuevo Monumental. Atletico DE Rafaela are 11th with 47 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Quilmes sit 13th on 45 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Atletico DE Rafaela's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Midland 0–4 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Quilmes's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Agropecuario 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Quilmes arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 31 May 2026, finished Quilmes 2–0 Atletico DE Rafaela.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.9 for Atletico DE Rafaela and 0.9 for Quilmes. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 73% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atletico DE Rafaela 39%, draw 26%, Quilmes 35%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Quilmes to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Atletico DE Rafaela 0–0 Quilmes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico DE Rafaela39%fair 2.57 · @2.40
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @2.80
Quilmes35%fair 2.86 · @3.10
1.80Expected goals
0.94Atletico DE Rafaela xG
0.86Quilmes xG
48%Both score
27%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–017%
1–015%
0–114%
1–113%
2–07%
2–16%
From our goals model: Atletico DE Rafaela 0.9 – 0.9 Quilmes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes?
On our numbers Atletico DE Rafaela have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Quilmes 35%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes?
Our predicted score is Atletico DE Rafaela 0–0 Quilmes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes?
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Monumental.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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