Value bet: Gimnasia Y Tiro to win @ 4.00 – our chance 32% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultQuilmes to win ✓43% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.48
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓16% · fair 6.38
Quilmes vs Gimnasia Y Tiro preview and prediction
The match
Gimnasia Y Tiro travel to Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes in the Primera Nacional on Saturday 13 June (21:00 WAT) to face Quilmes. Quilmes are 13th with 45 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Gimnasia Y Tiro sit 8th on 52 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Quilmes's last 5: DWDLD Most recently they drew with San Martin Tucuman 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Gimnasia Y Tiro's last 5: WDDWL Most recently they beat Midland 1–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.0 for Quilmes and 0.9 for Gimnasia Y Tiro. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Quilmes 43%, draw 25%, Gimnasia Y Tiro 32%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.48.
Value angle: Gimnasia Y Tiro to win at 4.00 – 32% on our numbers against 25% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Quilmes 1–0 Gimnasia Y Tiro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Quilmes43%fair 2.35 · @2.10
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @2.70
Gimnasia Y Tiro32%fair 3.10 · @4.00
1.90Expected goals
1.04Quilmes xG
0.85Gimnasia Y Tiro xG
47%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
0–015%
1–113%
0–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Quilmes 1.0 – 0.9 Gimnasia Y Tiro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Quilmes to win✓
43%
2.35
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.35
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
23%
4.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
16%
6.38
–
Form
Quilmes – last 6
DWDLDW
7 Jun
@ San Martin Tucuman
0–0
D
31 May
vs Atletico DE Rafaela
2–0
W
24 May
@ Agropecuario
0–0
D
17 May
vs Tristan Suarez
0–1
L
5 May
vs Chacarita Juniors
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ San Telmo
3–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Gimnasia Y Tiro – last 6
WDDWLL
6 Jun
vs Midland
1–0
W
31 May
@ Atlanta
1–1
D
24 May
vs Gimnasia Jujuy
1–1
D
17 May
vs San Martin Tucuman
1–0
W
5 May
vs Agropecuario
2–3
L
1 May
@ Velez Sarsfield
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Quilmes and Gimnasia Y Tiro.
What is the prediction for Quilmes vs Gimnasia Y Tiro?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Quilmes vs Gimnasia Y Tiro?
On our numbers Quilmes have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Gimnasia Y Tiro 32%.
How many goals will there be in Quilmes vs Gimnasia Y Tiro?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Quilmes vs Gimnasia Y Tiro?
Our predicted score is Quilmes 1–0 Gimnasia Y Tiro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Quilmes vs Gimnasia Y Tiro?
Quilmes vs Gimnasia Y Tiro (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Saturday 13 June 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Defensores De Belgrano0
Colon Santa Fe3
Ciudad de Bolívar1
Deportivo Moron2