Value bet: Atletico DE Rafaela to win @ 3.75 – our chance 33% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultQuilmes to win ✓40% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.44
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.87
Quilmes vs Atletico DE Rafaela preview and prediction
The match
Quilmes host Atletico DE Rafaela in the Primera Nacional on Sunday 31 May, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes. Quilmes are 13th with 45 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Atletico DE Rafaela sit 11th on 47 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Quilmes's last 5: DLDWW Most recently they drew with Agropecuario 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico DE Rafaela's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to San Martin Tucuman 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Quilmes arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.6 goals: 0.9 for Quilmes and 0.8 for Atletico DE Rafaela. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 77% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Quilmes 40%, draw 27%, Atletico DE Rafaela 33%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Atletico DE Rafaela to win at 3.75 – 33% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Quilmes 0–0 Atletico DE Rafaela. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Quilmes40%fair 2.52 · @2.20
Draw27%fair 3.66 · @2.70
Atletico DE Rafaela33%fair 3.02 · @3.75
1.64Expected goals
0.88Quilmes xG
0.76Atletico DE Rafaela xG
49%Both score
23%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–019%
1–017%
0–115%
1–113%
2–07%
2–16%
From our goals model: Quilmes 0.9 – 0.8 Atletico DE Rafaela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Quilmes to win✓
40%
2.52
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.38
1.44
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
55%
1.81
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
27%
3.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.87
–
Form
Quilmes – last 6
DLDWWD
24 May
@ Agropecuario
0–0
D
17 May
vs Tristan Suarez
0–1
L
5 May
vs Chacarita Juniors
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ San Telmo
3–0
W
15 Mar
vs Patronato
3–0
W
22 Feb
vs Midland
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Atletico DE Rafaela – last 6
LWDLDL
3 May
@ San Martin Tucuman
1–2
L
21 Apr
vs Agropecuario
4–1
W
14 Apr
@ Tristan Suarez
0–0
D
6 Apr
vs Club Atlético Güemes
1–2
L
30 Mar
@ Defensores De Belgrano
1–1
D
28 Mar
@ Belgrano Cordoba
0–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Quilmes and Atletico DE Rafaela.
What is the prediction for Quilmes vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Quilmes vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
On our numbers Quilmes have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Atletico DE Rafaela 33%.
How many goals will there be in Quilmes vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 23% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Quilmes vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Our predicted score is Quilmes 0–0 Atletico DE Rafaela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Quilmes vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Quilmes vs Atletico DE Rafaela (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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