Value bet: Tristan Suarez to win @ 3.60 – our chance 29% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPatronato to win ✗45% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.44
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.23
Patronato vs Tristan Suarez preview and prediction
The match
Tristan Suarez travel to face Patronato in the Primera Nacional on Sunday 31 May (20:00 WAT). Patronato are 16th with 38 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Tristan Suarez sit 1st on 64 points (top of the table). A gap of 26 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Patronato's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to Club Atlético Güemes 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tristan Suarez's last 5: WDDLW Most recently they beat Quilmes 1–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tristan Suarez arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.6 goals: 0.9 for Patronato and 0.7 for Tristan Suarez. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 79% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Tristan Suarez to win at 3.60 – 29% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Patronato 0–0 Tristan Suarez. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Patronato45%fair 2.23 · @2.30
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @2.62
Tristan Suarez29%fair 3.39 · @3.60
1.57Expected goals
0.92Patronato xG
0.65Tristan Suarez xG
47%Both score
21%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–021%
1–019%
0–114%
1–112%
2–09%
2–16%
From our goals model: Patronato 0.9 – 0.7 Tristan Suarez expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Patronato to win✗
45%
2.23
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.44 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
53%
1.87
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
56%
1.78
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
28%
3.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.23
–
Form
Patronato – last 6
LWDLLD
24 May
@ Club Atlético Güemes
0–1
L
17 May
vs Chacarita Juniors
2–0
W
19 Apr
vs Deportivo Maipu
0–0
D
29 Mar
vs Colon Santa Fe
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Quilmes
0–3
L
3 Mar
@ Atlanta
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Tristan Suarez – last 6
WDDLWW
17 May
@ Quilmes
1–0
W
19 Apr
@ San Martin Tucuman
0–0
D
14 Apr
vs Atletico DE Rafaela
0–0
D
9 Apr
@ Sarmiento Junin
0–1
L
21 Mar
vs Gimnasia Jujuy
3–0
W
2 Mar
vs San Martin S.J.
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Patronato and Tristan Suarez.
What is the prediction for Patronato vs Tristan Suarez?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Patronato vs Tristan Suarez?
On our numbers Patronato have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Tristan Suarez 29%.
How many goals will there be in Patronato vs Tristan Suarez?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 21% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Patronato vs Tristan Suarez?
Our predicted score is Patronato 0–0 Tristan Suarez, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Patronato vs Tristan Suarez?
Patronato vs Tristan Suarez (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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