Value bet: San Martin Tucuman to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSan Martin Tucuman to win ✗61% · @1.85
Double chanceSan Martin Tucuman or draw ✓87% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · @1.48
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗22% · fair 4.52
San Martin Tucuman vs Tristan Suarez preview and prediction
The match
The Primera Nacional sees San Martin Tucuman take on Tristan Suarez on Sunday 19 April, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estadio La Ciudadela. San Martin Tucuman are 10th with 47 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Tristan Suarez sit 1st on 64 points (top of the table). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
San Martin Tucuman's last 3: DDD Most recently they drew with Deportivo Madryn 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Tristan Suarez's last 4: DLWW Most recently they drew with Atletico DE Rafaela 0–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tristan Suarez arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.4 for San Martin Tucuman and 0.5 for Tristan Suarez. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: San Martin Tucuman 61%, draw 26%, Tristan Suarez 13%.
Both teams to score: no (57%) at 1.48.
Value angle: San Martin Tucuman to win at 1.85 – 61% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: San Martin Tucuman 1–0 Tristan Suarez. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
San Martin Tucuman61%fair 1.64 · @1.85
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @2.85
Tristan Suarez13%fair 7.46 · @4.80
1.82Expected goals
1.36San Martin Tucuman xG
0.46Tristan Suarez xG
43%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–022%
0–016%
2–015%
1–110%
0–17%
2–17%
From our goals model: San Martin Tucuman 1.4 – 0.5 Tristan Suarez expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Martin Tucuman to win✗
61%
1.64
1.85 ▲
Double chance
San Martin Tucuman or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Martin Tucuman / FT San Martin Tucuman✗
36%
2.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
22%
4.52
–
Form
San Martin Tucuman – last 3
DDD
29 Mar
@ Deportivo Madryn
1–1
D
21 Mar
@ San Martin S.J.
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Patronato
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Tristan Suarez – last 4
DLWW
14 Apr
vs Atletico DE Rafaela
0–0
D
9 Apr
@ Sarmiento Junin
0–1
L
21 Mar
vs Gimnasia Jujuy
3–0
W
2 Mar
vs San Martin S.J.
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Martin Tucuman and Tristan Suarez.
What is the prediction for San Martin Tucuman vs Tristan Suarez?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win San Martin Tucuman vs Tristan Suarez?
On our numbers San Martin Tucuman have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Tristan Suarez 13%.
How many goals will there be in San Martin Tucuman vs Tristan Suarez?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Martin Tucuman vs Tristan Suarez?
Our predicted score is San Martin Tucuman 1–0 Tristan Suarez, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is San Martin Tucuman vs Tristan Suarez?
San Martin Tucuman vs Tristan Suarez (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Ciudadela.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Ciudad de Bolívar1
Deportivo Madryn0
CA Estudiantes
Chaco For Ever
Atletico Mitre
Ferro Carril Oeste
Almirante Brown
Central Norte