Value bet: Deportivo Maipu to win @ 3.25 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPatronato to win ✗39% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.07
Patronato vs Deportivo Maipu preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo Maipu travel to face Patronato in the Primera Nacional on Sunday 19 April (00:00 WAT). Patronato are 16th with 38 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Deportivo Maipu sit 6th on 52 points (in the top half). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Patronato's last 5: LLDLD Most recently they lost to Colon Santa Fe 0–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deportivo Maipu's last 3: LLW Most recently they lost to Godoy Cruz 0–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Deportivo Maipu arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Patronato and 1.1 for Deportivo Maipu. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 49%.
Value angle: Deportivo Maipu to win at 3.25 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Patronato 1–0 Deportivo Maipu. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Patronato39%fair 2.57 · @2.40
Draw27%fair 3.67 · @2.70
Deportivo Maipu34%fair 2.95 · @3.25
2.25Expected goals
1.18Patronato xG
1.07Deportivo Maipu xG
49%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Patronato 1.2 – 1.1 Deportivo Maipu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Patronato to win✗
39%
2.57
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Patronato / FT Patronato✗
22%
4.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.07
–
Form
Patronato – last 5
LLDLD
29 Mar
vs Colon Santa Fe
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Quilmes
0–3
L
3 Mar
@ Atlanta
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Gimnasia Y Tiro
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ San Martin Tucuman
0–0
D
0.2Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Deportivo Maipu – last 3
LLW
29 Mar
vs Godoy Cruz
0–1
L
17 Mar
@ Atlanta
1–3
L
22 Feb
vs Atletico DE Rafaela
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Patronato and Deportivo Maipu.
What is the prediction for Patronato vs Deportivo Maipu?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Patronato vs Deportivo Maipu?
On our numbers Patronato have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Deportivo Maipu 34%.
How many goals will there be in Patronato vs Deportivo Maipu?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Patronato vs Deportivo Maipu?
Our predicted score is Patronato 1–0 Deportivo Maipu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Patronato vs Deportivo Maipu?
Patronato vs Deportivo Maipu (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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