Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
Venados FC or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Venados FC to win @ 1.73 – our chance 64% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVenados FC to win ✓64% · @1.73
Double chanceVenados FC or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.98
Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG preview and prediction
The match
The Liga De Expansión MX sees Venados FC take on Leones Negros UDG on Sunday 12 April, kicking off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero. Venados FC are 6th with 25 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Leones Negros UDG sit 2nd on 30 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Venados FC's last 5: DWLLL Most recently they drew with CDS Tampico Madero 1–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Leones Negros UDG's last 5: WDDLD Most recently they beat Monarcas 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Leones Negros UDG arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.2 for Venados FC and 1.0 for Leones Negros UDG. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Venados FC to win at 1.73 – 64% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Venados FC or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Venados FC 2–0 Leones Negros UDG. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Venados FC64%fair 1.56 · @1.73
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @3.95
Leones Negros UDG14%fair 7.12 · @4.20
3.20Expected goals
2.22Venados FC xG
0.98Leones Negros UDG xG
60%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Venados FC 2.2 – 1.0 Leones Negros UDG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Venados FC to win✓
64%
1.56
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Venados FC or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.65
1.55
Half-time result
Venados FC ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Venados FC / FT Venados FC✗
43%
2.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.98
–
Form
Venados FC – last 6
DWLLLL
6 Apr
@ CDS Tampico Madero
1–1
D
28 Mar
vs Atlante FC
4–1
W
21 Mar
@ Tepatitlán
0–2
L
7 Mar
vs Correcaminos Uat
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Mineros de Zacatecas
0–2
L
15 Feb
@ Monarcas
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Leones Negros UDG – last 6
WDDLDD
5 Apr
vs Monarcas
2–0
W
28 Mar
@ Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Dorados
1–1
D
5 Mar
@ CA La Paz
0–3
L
1 Mar
vs Atlante FC
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Tepatitlán
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Venados FC and Leones Negros UDG.
What is the prediction for Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our pick is Venados FC or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
On our numbers Venados FC have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Leones Negros UDG 14%.
How many goals will there be in Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our predicted score is Venados FC 2–0 Leones Negros UDG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Irapuato2
Atlante FC1