Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Monarcas to win @ 1.81 – our chance 66% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMonarcas to win ✗66% · @1.81
Double chanceMonarcas or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.15
Monarcas vs Tlaxcala preview and prediction
The match
The Liga De Expansión MX sees Monarcas take on Tlaxcala on Sunday 12 April, kicking off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Morelos. Monarcas are 3rd with 26 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Tlaxcala sit 8th on 22 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Monarcas's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Leones Negros UDG 0–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Tlaxcala's last 5: LWDDL Most recently they lost to Tapatío 0–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Monarcas and 0.8 for Tlaxcala. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 60%.
Value angle: Monarcas to win at 1.81 – 66% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Monarcas or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Monarcas 2–0 Tlaxcala. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Monarcas66%fair 1.51 · @1.81
Draw21%fair 4.87 · @3.80
Tlaxcala13%fair 7.50 · @3.95
2.83Expected goals
2.03Monarcas xG
0.79Tlaxcala xG
60%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Monarcas 2.0 – 0.8 Tlaxcala expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monarcas to win✗
66%
1.51
1.81 ▲
Double chance
Monarcas or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.50
Half-time result
Monarcas ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monarcas / FT Monarcas✗
43%
2.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
12%
8.15
–
Form
Monarcas – last 6
LWLWLW
5 Apr
@ Leones Negros UDG
0–2
L
29 Mar
vs Irapuato
2–0
W
23 Mar
@ Tapatío
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Tepatitlán
3–2
W
8 Mar
@ Atlante FC
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs CA La Paz
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Tlaxcala – last 6
LWDDLW
8 Apr
@ Tapatío
0–3
L
4 Apr
vs Dorados
2–0
W
23 Mar
@ CDS Tampico Madero
0–0
D
19 Mar
vs Atlante FC
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ CA La Paz
0–2
L
1 Mar
vs Tepatitlán
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monarcas and Tlaxcala.
Our pick is Monarcas or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Monarcas vs Tlaxcala?
On our numbers Monarcas have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Tlaxcala 13%.
How many goals will there be in Monarcas vs Tlaxcala?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monarcas vs Tlaxcala?
Our predicted score is Monarcas 2–0 Tlaxcala, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Monarcas vs Tlaxcala?
Monarcas vs Tlaxcala (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Morelos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Irapuato2
Atlante FC1