Leones Negros UDG vs Atlante FC prediction & analysis
81%
Footrivo pick
Atlante FC or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Atlante FC to win @ 1.84 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtlante FC to win ✗61% · @1.84
Double chanceAtlante FC or draw ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.30
Leones Negros UDG vs Atlante FC preview and prediction
The match
Atlante FC travel to Estadio Jalisco in the Liga De Expansión MX on Sunday 1 March (19:00 WAT) to face Leones Negros UDG.
Form guide
Atlante FC's last 3: WWD Most recently they beat Irapuato 5–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.9 for Leones Negros UDG and 1.9 for Atlante FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 59%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Atlante FC to win at 1.84 – 61% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atlante FC or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Leones Negros UDG 0–1 Atlante FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones Negros UDG19%fair 5.38 · @4.10
Draw20%fair 5.02 · @3.55
Atlante FC61%fair 1.63 · @1.84
2.73Expected goals
0.88Leones Negros UDG xG
1.85Atlante FC xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–112%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–06%
From our goals model: Leones Negros UDG 0.9 – 1.9 Atlante FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atlante FC to win✗
61%
1.63
1.84 ▲
Double chance
Atlante FC or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.98
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.33
Half-time result
Atlante FC ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atlante FC / FT Atlante FC✗
38%
2.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.30
–
Form
Leones Negros UDG – last 1
D
15 Feb
vs Tepatitlán
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Atlante FC – last 3
WWD
26 Feb
@ Irapuato
5–0
W
22 Feb
vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1–0
W
14 Feb
@ Correcaminos Uat
1–1
D
2.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones Negros UDG and Atlante FC.
What is the prediction for Leones Negros UDG vs Atlante FC?
Our pick is Atlante FC or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Atlante FC?
On our numbers Leones Negros UDG have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Atlante FC 61%.
How many goals will there be in Leones Negros UDG vs Atlante FC?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones Negros UDG vs Atlante FC?
Our predicted score is Leones Negros UDG 0–1 Atlante FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Leones Negros UDG vs Atlante FC?
Leones Negros UDG vs Atlante FC (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
