Value bet: Tepatitlán to win @ 2.90 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTlaxcala to win ✓39% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓10% · fair 10.10
Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán preview and prediction
The match
The Liga De Expansión MX sees Tlaxcala take on Tepatitlán on Sunday 1 March, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estadio Tlahuicole. Tlaxcala are 8th with 22 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Tepatitlán sit 16th on 7 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Tlaxcala and 1.3 for Tepatitlán. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: Tepatitlán to win at 2.90 – 37% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Tlaxcala 1–1 Tepatitlán. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tlaxcala39%fair 2.59 · @2.38
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.25
Tepatitlán37%fair 2.68 · @2.90
2.58Expected goals
1.30Tlaxcala xG
1.27Tepatitlán xG
59%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Tlaxcala 1.3 – 1.3 Tepatitlán expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tlaxcala to win✓
39%
2.59
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tlaxcala / FT Tlaxcala✗
22%
4.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
10%
10.10
–
Form
Tlaxcala – last 1
D
14 Feb
@ Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Tepatitlán – last 2
WD
21 Feb
vs Irapuato
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Leones Negros UDG
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tlaxcala and Tepatitlán.
What is the prediction for Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán?
On our numbers Tlaxcala have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Tepatitlán 37%.
How many goals will there be in Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán?
Our predicted score is Tlaxcala 1–1 Tepatitlán, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán?
Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tlahuicole.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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