USL Championship · USA · Lynn Family Stadium
Louisville City vs El Paso Locomotive prediction & analysis
Louisville City to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Louisville City 2.2 – 0.9 El Paso Locomotive expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Louisville City are clear favourites at home with a 67% chance of winning, against 13% for El Paso Locomotive.
Louisville City have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (1W 4D 1L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.8 per game. El Paso Locomotive have 18 points from their last 6 (6W 0D 0L), averaging 2.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. El Paso Locomotive come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.1 goals (2.2 for Louisville City, 0.9 for El Paso Locomotive). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11%), 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%).
Our pick is Louisville City to win at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.55 is better than our fair price of 1.50, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Louisville City to win ✗ | 67% | 1.50 | 1.55 |
| Double chance | Louisville City or draw ✗ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 82% | 1.22 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 62% | 1.61 | – |
| Half-time result | Louisville City ahead at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.03 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Louisville City / FT Louisville City ✗ | 44% | 2.25 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 11% | 9.08 | – |
Form
Louisville City – last 6
| 9 Sep | @ San Antonio | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Rhode Island | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Detroit City | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | @ Indy Eleven | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | @ Orange County SC | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Aug | @ Tampa Bay Rowdies | 0–0 | D |
El Paso Locomotive – last 6
| 30 Aug | vs Loudoun United | 4–1 | W |
| 27 Aug | vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | @ Colorado Springs | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | @ San Antonio | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | vs Oakland Roots | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Aug | vs Monterey Bay | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Louisville City and El Paso Locomotive.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | +26 | 61 |
| 2 |  Charleston Battery | 30 | +21 | 53 |
| 3 |  Detroit City | 30 | +13 | 51 |
| 4 |  Louisville City | 30 | +8 | 47 |
| 5 |  Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | +3 | 45 |
| 6 |  Hartford Athletic | 30 | +2 | 43 |
| 7 |  Rhode Island | 30 | +9 | 42 |
| 8 |  Miami FC | 30 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 |  Indy Eleven | 30 | -6 | 34 |
| 10 |  Loudoun United | 30 | -10 | 31 |
| 11 |  Birmingham Legion | 30 | -6 | 30 |
| 12 |  Brooklyn | 30 | -29 | 21 |
| 13 |  Sporting JAX | 30 | -46 | 14 |
More USL Championship predictions
League hub
Oakland Roots1
Lexington4
Orange County SC0
Las Vegas Lights2
Phoenix Rising2
FC Tulsa1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Louisville City vs El Paso Locomotive?
Our pick is Louisville City to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Louisville City vs El Paso Locomotive?
On our numbers Louisville City have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 21% and El Paso Locomotive 13%.
How many goals will there be in Louisville City vs El Paso Locomotive?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Louisville City vs El Paso Locomotive?
Louisville City vs El Paso Locomotive (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Lynn Family Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.