USL Championship · USA · Heart Health ParkSacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising prediction & analysis
Sacramento Republic or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Sacramento Republic to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sacramento Republic 1.6 – 0.8 Phoenix Rising expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Sacramento Republic hold the edge on home soil with a 57% chance of winning, against 17% for Phoenix Rising.
Sacramento Republic have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.5 per game. Phoenix Rising have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.6 for Sacramento Republic, 0.8 for Phoenix Rising). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 56%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 2 meetings, Sacramento Republic have won 1, Phoenix Rising have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Sacramento Republic or draw at a 83% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is better than our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Sacramento Republic to win at 1.91 is our value angle (57% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sacramento Republic to win ✗ | 57% | 1.74 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | Sacramento Republic or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.43 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.79 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 77% | 1.30 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.31 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Sacramento Republic / FT Sacramento Republic ✗ | 36% | 2.82 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 6.96 | – |
Form
Sacramento Republic – last 6
| 16 Aug | vs Lexington | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Aug | @ FC Tulsa | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Aug | vs Sporting JAX | 5–0 | W |
| 26 Jul | @ Oakland Roots | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Jul | @ Charleston Battery | 1–1 | D |
Phoenix Rising – last 6
| 20 Aug | vs Colorado Springs | 3–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | @ Lexington | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Aug | @ Las Vegas Lights | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Jul | vs Hartford Athletic | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Jul | vs Monterey Bay | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Jul | @ Alta | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 31 May 2026 | Phoenix Rising v Sacramento Republic | 2–0 |
| 5 Apr 2026 | Sacramento Republic v Phoenix Rising | 2–0 |
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  New Mexico United | 30 | +11 | 52 |
| 2 |  Sacramento Republic | 30 | +14 | 51 |
| 3 |  El Paso Locomotive | 30 | +10 | 50 |
| 4 |  Lexington | 30 | +18 | 48 |
| 5 |  Colorado Springs | 30 | +6 | 47 |
| 6 |  San Antonio | 30 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 |  FC Tulsa | 30 | +3 | 43 |
| 8 |  Phoenix Rising | 30 | -1 | 40 |
| 9 |  Orange County SC | 30 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 |  Oakland Roots | 30 | -1 | 38 |
| 11 |  Las Vegas Lights | 30 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 |  Monterey Bay | 30 | -20 | 24 |
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Sporting JAX3Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
Our pick is Sacramento Republic or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
On our numbers Sacramento Republic have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Phoenix Rising 17%.
How many goals will there be in Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Heart Health Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.