Value bet: Tampa Bay Rowdies to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTampa Bay Rowdies to win ✓57% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.72
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City preview and prediction
The match
Louisville City travel to Al Lang Stadium in the USL Championship on Sunday 2 August (01:00 WAT) to face Tampa Bay Rowdies. Tampa Bay Rowdies are 1st with 61 points from 30 games (top of the table), while Louisville City sit 4th on 47 points (in the top four). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tampa Bay Rowdies's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Miami FC 3–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Louisville City's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Birmingham Legion 2–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 31 May 2026, finished Louisville City 0–2 Tampa Bay Rowdies.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.8 for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 1.1 for Louisville City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tampa Bay Rowdies 57%, draw 20%, Louisville City 23%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Tampa Bay Rowdies to win at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–1 Louisville City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tampa Bay Rowdies57%fair 1.76 · @1.95
Draw20%fair 5.07 · @3.55
Louisville City23%fair 4.27 · @3.35
2.87Expected goals
1.82Tampa Bay Rowdies xG
1.05Louisville City xG
61%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
3–16%
0–16%
From our goals model: Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.8 – 1.1 Louisville City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City?
On our numbers Tampa Bay Rowdies have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Louisville City 23%.
How many goals will there be in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City?
Our predicted score is Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–1 Louisville City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City?
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Al Lang Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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