Las Vegas Lights vs Phoenix Rising preview and prediction
The match
Phoenix Rising travel to Cashman Field in the USL Championship on Sunday 2 August (03:30 WAT) to face Las Vegas Lights. Las Vegas Lights are 11th with 36 points from 30 games (in the bottom three), while Phoenix Rising sit 8th on 40 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Las Vegas Lights's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Detroit City 1–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Phoenix Rising's last 5: DWLLL Most recently they drew with Hartford Athletic 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Las Vegas Lights arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.5 for Las Vegas Lights and 1.4 for Phoenix Rising. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Las Vegas Lights 1–1 Phoenix Rising. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Las Vegas Lights42%fair 2.37 · @2.45
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.50
Phoenix Rising35%fair 2.83 · @2.45
2.92Expected goals
1.54Las Vegas Lights xG
1.38Phoenix Rising xG
60%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–17%
2–06%
From our goals model: Las Vegas Lights 1.5 – 1.4 Phoenix Rising expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Las Vegas Lights to win✗
42%
2.37
2.45
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.65
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Las Vegas Lights / FT Las Vegas Lights✗
24%
4.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.35
–
Form
Las Vegas Lights – last 6
WWWLLW
26 Jul
@ Detroit City
1–0
W
19 Jul
@ San Antonio
2–1
W
12 Jul
@ Monterey Bay
3–2
W
5 Jul
vs El Paso Locomotive
1–2
L
21 Jun
vs Orange County SC
2–3
L
14 Jun
@ Birmingham Legion
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Phoenix Rising – last 6
DWLLLD
26 Jul
vs Hartford Athletic
0–0
D
19 Jul
vs Monterey Bay
3–2
W
12 Jul
@ Alta
1–2
L
5 Jul
@ Colorado Springs
1–3
L
21 Jun
vs Oakland Roots
3–4
L
14 Jun
@ El Paso Locomotive
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Las Vegas Lights and Phoenix Rising.
What is the prediction for Las Vegas Lights vs Phoenix Rising?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Las Vegas Lights vs Phoenix Rising?
On our numbers Las Vegas Lights have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Phoenix Rising 35%.
How many goals will there be in Las Vegas Lights vs Phoenix Rising?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Las Vegas Lights vs Phoenix Rising?
Our predicted score is Las Vegas Lights 1–1 Phoenix Rising, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Las Vegas Lights vs Phoenix Rising?
Las Vegas Lights vs Phoenix Rising (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 03:30 (West Africa Time) at Cashman Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Loudoun United2
Hartford Athletic0
Miami FC2
Detroit City2
Charleston Battery5
Brooklyn0
Tampa Bay Rowdies5
Louisville City4
Pittsburgh Riverhounds1