The USL Championship sees Lexington take on Monterey Bay on Sunday 2 August, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Toyota Stadium. Lexington are 4th with 48 points from 30 games (in the top four), while Monterey Bay sit 12th on 24 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 24 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Lexington's last 5: DWLLW Most recently they drew with FC Tulsa 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Monterey Bay's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to Orange County SC 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Lexington arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 9 May 2026, finished Lexington 3–1 Monterey Bay.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Lexington and 0.7 for Monterey Bay. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lexington 66%, draw 22%, Monterey Bay 12%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Lexington 2–0 Monterey Bay. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lexington66%fair 1.51 · @1.55
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.95
Monterey Bay12%fair 8.50 · @5.10
2.78Expected goals
2.03Lexington xG
0.75Monterey Bay xG
57%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–013%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–16%
From our goals model: Lexington 2.0 – 0.7 Monterey Bay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
On our numbers Lexington have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Monterey Bay 12%.
How many goals will there be in Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
Our predicted score is Lexington 2–0 Monterey Bay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
Lexington vs Monterey Bay (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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