Louisville City vs Hartford Athletic preview and prediction
The match
Hartford Athletic travel to Lynn Family Stadium in the USL Championship on Sunday 5 July (01:00 WAT) to face Louisville City. Louisville City are 4th with 47 points from 30 games (in the top four), while Hartford Athletic sit 6th on 43 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Louisville City's last 5: DDWDL Most recently they drew with Detroit City 0–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Hartford Athletic's last 5: DWWDL Most recently they drew with Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Hartford Athletic arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Louisville City and 0.8 for Hartford Athletic. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 59%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Louisville City 62%, draw 20%, Hartford Athletic 18%.
Safer route: Louisville City or draw (82%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Louisville City 2–0 Hartford Athletic. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Louisville City62%fair 1.61 · @1.64
Draw20%fair 4.93 · @3.80
Hartford Athletic18%fair 5.67 · @4.50
2.70Expected goals
1.86Louisville City xG
0.85Hartford Athletic xG
59%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Louisville City 1.9 – 0.8 Hartford Athletic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Louisville City to win✓
62%
1.61
1.64
Double chance
Louisville City or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Half-time result
Louisville City ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Louisville City / FT Louisville City✗
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
12%
8.05
–
Form
Louisville City – last 6
DDWDLL
20 Jun
@ Detroit City
0–0
D
14 Jun
vs Brooklyn
2–2
D
11 Jun
@ Phoenix Rising
2–0
W
4 Jun
@ Birmingham Legion
1–1
D
31 May
vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
0–2
L
24 May
@ Miami FC
3–4
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Hartford Athletic – last 6
DWWDLW
21 Jun
vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0–0
D
14 Jun
@ Tampa Bay Rowdies
1–0
W
7 Jun
@ NY Cosmos
4–1
W
31 May
vs New Mexico United
0–0
D
23 May
@ FC Tulsa
0–2
L
17 May
@ Brooklyn
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Louisville City and Hartford Athletic.
What is the prediction for Louisville City vs Hartford Athletic?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Louisville City vs Hartford Athletic?
On our numbers Louisville City have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Hartford Athletic 18%.
How many goals will there be in Louisville City vs Hartford Athletic?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Louisville City vs Hartford Athletic?
Our predicted score is Louisville City 2–0 Hartford Athletic, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Louisville City vs Hartford Athletic?
Louisville City vs Hartford Athletic (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 5 July 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Lynn Family Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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