Thursday, 12 November 2026 10 live now Results recordAccuracyHow it works18+ · Bet responsibly
Today's tips
USL Championship · USA · Heart Health Park

Sacramento Republic

WLLWW
0–1
FT

New Mexico United

DWDWL

Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United prediction & analysis

75%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.30Odds
1

Value bet: Sacramento Republic to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultSacramento Republic to win ✗63% · @1.85
Double chanceSacramento Republic or draw ✗88% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.38

Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United preview and prediction

The match

Sacramento Republic host New Mexico United in the USL Championship on Sunday 21 June, with kick-off at 04:00 (WAT) at Heart Health Park. Sacramento Republic are 2nd with 51 points from 30 games (in the top four), while New Mexico United sit 1st on 52 points (top of the table). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.

Form guide

Sacramento Republic's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Colorado Springs 1–0 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

New Mexico United's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with Orange County SC 1–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

Sacramento Republic arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for Sacramento Republic and 0.7 for New Mexico United. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%.

Betting angles

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Sacramento Republic 1–0 New Mexico United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Sacramento Republic63%fair 1.60 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.35
New Mexico United12%fair 8.15 · @3.75
2.42Expected goals
1.76Sacramento Republic xG
0.66New Mexico United xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%

From our goals model: Sacramento Republic 1.8 – 0.7 New Mexico United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSacramento Republic to win ✗63%1.601.85 ▲
Double chanceSacramento Republic or draw ✗88%1.141.18
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗52%1.921.75
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗70%1.421.30
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓54%1.851.80
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75%1.341.30
Half-time resultSacramento Republic ahead at half-time ✗44%2.25–
Half-time / full-timeHT Sacramento Republic / FT Sacramento Republic ✗40%2.50–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16%6.38–

Form

Sacramento Republic – last 6

WLLWWW
14 Jun@ Colorado Springs1–0W
31 May@ Phoenix Rising0–2L
24 May@ San Antonio1–2L
17 May@ Oakland Roots1–0W
3 Mayvs Orange County SC3–2W
26 Aprvs Spokane Velocity4–0W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

New Mexico United – last 6

DWDWLL
14 Junvs Orange County SC1–1D
7 Junvs Phoenix Rising4–0W
31 May@ Hartford Athletic0–0D
24 Mayvs Charleston Battery1–0W
21 Mayvs Tampa Bay Rowdies0–1L
17 May@ Colorado Springs0–4L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Sacramento Republic and New Mexico United.

Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United head-to-head page →

USL Championship table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1New Mexico United301578+1152
2Sacramento Republic3013125+1451
3El Paso Locomotive3015510+1050
4Lexington3014610+1848
5Colorado Springs301389+647
6San Antonio3011127+245
7FC Tulsa3011109+343
8Phoenix Rising30101010-140
9Orange County SC3010911-1039
10Oakland Roots3091110-138
11Las Vegas Lights3010614-736
12Monterey Bay306618-2024

More USL Championship predictions

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FT Brooklyn0 Tampa Bay Rowdies2 117%5.00X18%4.00265%1.55 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 66%@1.48 ✓
FT Hartford Athletic0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds0 136%2.20X24%3.20240%2.95 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.25 ✓
FT Sporting JAX2 Charleston Battery5 115%5.60X22%4.40262%1.44 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 60%@1.62 ✓
FT Birmingham Legion1 Loudoun United1 160%1.68X21%3.80219%4.10 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 65%@1.48 ✓
FT FC Tulsa1 Colorado Springs2 141%2.40X23%3.40237%2.55 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✓
FT Monterey Bay1 El Paso Locomotive0 137%2.55X21%3.65242%2.30 GGBoth teams to score 64%@1.44 ✗
FT Phoenix Rising3 Oakland Roots4 145%2.10X20%3.50234%2.90 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.20 ✓
FT Las Vegas Lights2 Orange County SC3 146%2.15X21%3.40233%3.00 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United?

On our numbers Sacramento Republic have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and New Mexico United 12%.

How many goals will there be in Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United?

Our predicted score is Sacramento Republic 1–0 New Mexico United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United?

Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Heart Health Park.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.