Value bet: Birmingham Legion to win @ 2.40 – our chance 50% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBirmingham Legion to win ✗50% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.85
Monterey Bay vs Birmingham Legion preview and prediction
The match
The USL Championship sees Monterey Bay take on Birmingham Legion on Sunday 24 May, kicking off at 03:00 (WAT) at Cardinale Stadium. Monterey Bay are 12th with 24 points from 30 games (in the bottom three), while Birmingham Legion sit 11th on 30 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Monterey Bay's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Boise 3–4 away. They average 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Birmingham Legion's last 5: DWLDL Most recently they drew with Miami FC 0–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Birmingham Legion arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.1 for Monterey Bay and 1.5 for Birmingham Legion. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Monterey Bay 29%, draw 21%, Birmingham Legion 50%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Birmingham Legion to win at 2.40 – 50% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Monterey Bay 1–1 Birmingham Legion. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Monterey Bay29%fair 3.45 · @2.55
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.35
Birmingham Legion50%fair 1.99 · @2.40
2.61Expected goals
1.07Monterey Bay xG
1.53Birmingham Legion xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Monterey Bay 1.1 – 1.5 Birmingham Legion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Birmingham Legion to win✗
50%
1.99
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.68
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Birmingham Legion / FT Birmingham Legion✗
29%
3.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.85
–
Form
Monterey Bay – last 6
LLLLDL
17 May
@ Boise
3–4
L
9 May
@ Lexington
1–3
L
4 May
vs FC Tulsa
1–2
L
12 Apr
@ Indy Eleven
1–3
L
5 Apr
vs San Antonio
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ Las Vegas Lights
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Birmingham Legion – last 5
DWLDL
8 May
vs Miami FC
0–0
D
3 May
@ Rhode Island
3–1
W
22 Mar
@ Charleston Battery
2–3
L
11 Mar
vs Hartford Athletic
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monterey Bay and Birmingham Legion.
What is the prediction for Monterey Bay vs Birmingham Legion?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Monterey Bay vs Birmingham Legion?
On our numbers Monterey Bay have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Birmingham Legion 50%.
How many goals will there be in Monterey Bay vs Birmingham Legion?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monterey Bay vs Birmingham Legion?
Our predicted score is Monterey Bay 1–1 Birmingham Legion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Monterey Bay vs Birmingham Legion?
Monterey Bay vs Birmingham Legion (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Cardinale Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Lexington1
San Antonio2
Sacramento Republic1
New Mexico United1
Orange County SC3
Oakland Roots2
Las Vegas Lights2
Colorado Springs0