New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: New Mexico United to win @ 1.73 – our chance 63% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNew Mexico United to win ✓63% · @1.73
Double chanceNew Mexico United or draw ✓83% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.88
New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights preview and prediction
The match
New Mexico United host Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on Sunday 10 May, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park. New Mexico United are 1st with 52 points from 30 games (top of the table), while Las Vegas Lights sit 11th on 36 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
New Mexico United's last 5: DWLWL Most recently they drew with El Paso Locomotive 2–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Las Vegas Lights's last 5: WDLDL Most recently they beat Lexington 2–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.1 for New Mexico United and 1.0 for Las Vegas Lights. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: New Mexico United 63%, draw 19%, Las Vegas Lights 17%.
Safer route: New Mexico United or draw (83%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.65.
Value angle: New Mexico United to win at 1.73 – 63% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: New Mexico United 2–0 Las Vegas Lights. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
New Mexico United63%fair 1.58 · @1.73
Draw19%fair 5.15 · @3.65
Las Vegas Lights17%fair 5.84 · @4.10
3.08Expected goals
2.10New Mexico United xG
0.98Las Vegas Lights xG
58%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–010%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: New Mexico United 2.1 – 1.0 Las Vegas Lights expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
New Mexico United to win✓
63%
1.58
1.73 ▲
Double chance
New Mexico United or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.40
Half-time result
New Mexico United ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT New Mexico United / FT New Mexico United✗
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.88
–
Form
New Mexico United – last 6
DWLWLL
7 May
vs El Paso Locomotive
2–2
D
26 Apr
vs Alta
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Phoenix Rising
0–3
L
5 Apr
@ Orange County SC
1–0
W
2 Apr
vs El Paso Locomotive
0–4
L
22 Mar
@ San Antonio
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Las Vegas Lights – last 6
WDLDLW
3 May
vs Lexington
2–1
W
26 Apr
vs Boise
1–1
D
23 Apr
@ Oakland Roots
2–4
L
12 Apr
vs Sacramento Republic
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ El Paso Locomotive
2–3
L
29 Mar
vs Monterey Bay
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between New Mexico United and Las Vegas Lights.
What is the prediction for New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?
On our numbers New Mexico United have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Las Vegas Lights 17%.
How many goals will there be in New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?
Our predicted score is New Mexico United 2–0 Las Vegas Lights, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?
New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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