Value bet: Indy Eleven to win @ 1.64 – our chance 68% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndy Eleven to win ✓68% · @1.64
Double chanceIndy Eleven or draw ✓89% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗13% · fair 7.82
Indy Eleven vs Sporting JAX preview and prediction
The match
Indy Eleven host Sporting JAX in the USL Championship on Sunday 10 May, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Michael A. Carroll Stadium. Indy Eleven are 9th with 34 points from 30 games (in the bottom half), while Sporting JAX sit 13th on 14 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Indy Eleven's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Tampa Bay Rowdies 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Sporting JAX's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Charleston Battery 0–4 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Indy Eleven arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.1 for Indy Eleven and 0.7 for Sporting JAX. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Indy Eleven to win at 1.64 – 68% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Indy Eleven 2–0 Sporting JAX. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Indy Eleven68%fair 1.48 · @1.64
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.75
Sporting JAX11%fair 8.77 · @4.50
2.83Expected goals
2.09Indy Eleven xG
0.75Sporting JAX xG
55%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%
From our goals model: Indy Eleven 2.1 – 0.7 Sporting JAX expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Indy Eleven to win✓
68%
1.48
1.64 ▲
Double chance
Indy Eleven or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.40
Half-time result
Indy Eleven ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Indy Eleven / FT Indy Eleven✗
45%
2.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
13%
7.82
–
Form
Indy Eleven – last 6
LLWDLW
3 May
@ Tampa Bay Rowdies
0–1
L
26 Apr
vs Union Omaha
1–2
L
12 Apr
vs Monterey Bay
3–1
W
5 Apr
vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1–1
D
1 Apr
vs Union Omaha
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Detroit City
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Sporting JAX – last 6
LLLLLL
3 May
@ Charleston Battery
0–4
L
26 Apr
vs Miami FC
0–1
L
5 Apr
vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
0–1
L
29 Mar
@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds
2–3
L
26 Mar
vs Miami FC
2–4
L
8 Mar
vs Hartford Athletic
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Indy Eleven and Sporting JAX.
What is the prediction for Indy Eleven vs Sporting JAX?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Indy Eleven vs Sporting JAX?
On our numbers Indy Eleven have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sporting JAX 11%.
How many goals will there be in Indy Eleven vs Sporting JAX?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Indy Eleven vs Sporting JAX?
Our predicted score is Indy Eleven 2–0 Sporting JAX, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Indy Eleven vs Sporting JAX?
Indy Eleven vs Sporting JAX (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Michael A. Carroll Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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