Orange County SC vs Lexington preview and prediction
The match
Orange County SC host Lexington in the USL Championship on Sunday 19 April, with kick-off at 03:00 (WAT) at Championship Soccer Stadium. Orange County SC are 9th with 39 points from 30 games (in the bottom half), while Lexington sit 4th on 48 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Orange County SC's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat FC Tulsa 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Lexington's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Rhode Island 1–3 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Orange County SC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.3 for Orange County SC and 1.0 for Lexington. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 54%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Orange County SC 47%, draw 22%, Lexington 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Orange County SC 1–0 Lexington. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Orange County SC47%fair 2.13 · @2.25
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.25
Lexington31%fair 3.19 · @2.85
2.21Expected goals
1.26Orange County SC xG
0.95Lexington xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Orange County SC 1.3 – 1.0 Lexington expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Orange County SC to win✗
47%
2.13
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Orange County SC / FT Orange County SC✗
25%
3.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.24
–
Form
Orange County SC – last 6
WWLDWW
12 Apr
@ FC Tulsa
1–0
W
9 Apr
vs San Antonio
2–0
W
5 Apr
vs New Mexico United
0–1
L
2 Apr
vs Phoenix Rising
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ Oakland Roots
1–0
W
22 Mar
vs Colorado Springs
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Lexington – last 6
LLLWWD
12 Apr
vs Rhode Island
1–3
L
2 Apr
vs Louisville City
0–2
L
29 Mar
@ San Antonio
0–2
L
26 Mar
vs Brooklyn
3–0
W
20 Mar
vs Flower City Union
9–0
W
15 Mar
vs Sacramento Republic
0–0
D
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Orange County SC and Lexington.
What is the prediction for Orange County SC vs Lexington?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Orange County SC vs Lexington?
On our numbers Orange County SC have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lexington 31%.
How many goals will there be in Orange County SC vs Lexington?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Orange County SC vs Lexington?
Our predicted score is Orange County SC 1–0 Lexington, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Orange County SC vs Lexington?
Orange County SC vs Lexington (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Championship Soccer Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Hartford Athletic0
Loudoun United0
Miami FC0
Pittsburgh Riverhounds2
Detroit City1
Birmingham Legion
Indy Eleven