Lexington vs Sacramento Republic preview and prediction
The match
Sacramento Republic travel to Toyota Stadium in the USL Championship on Sunday 15 March (00:00 WAT) to face Lexington. Lexington are 4th with 48 points from 30 games (in the top four), while Sacramento Republic sit 2nd on 51 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Lexington and 1.3 for Sacramento Republic. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 51%.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Lexington 1–1 Sacramento Republic. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lexington36%fair 2.77 · @2.50
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @2.90
Sacramento Republic39%fair 2.60 · @2.62
2.50Expected goals
1.22Lexington xG
1.28Sacramento Republic xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
0–08%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Lexington 1.2 – 1.3 Sacramento Republic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sacramento Republic to win✗
39%
2.60
2.62
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sacramento Republic / FT Sacramento Republic✗
22%
4.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.55
–
Form
Lexington – last 1
L
7 Mar
vs Louisville City
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Sacramento Republic – last 1
W
8 Mar
vs FC Tulsa
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lexington and Sacramento Republic.
What is the prediction for Lexington vs Sacramento Republic?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Lexington vs Sacramento Republic?
On our numbers Lexington have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sacramento Republic 39%.
How many goals will there be in Lexington vs Sacramento Republic?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lexington vs Sacramento Republic?
Our predicted score is Lexington 1–1 Sacramento Republic, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Lexington vs Sacramento Republic?
Lexington vs Sacramento Republic (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
