Value bet: Dundalk to win @ 1.90 – our chance 60% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultDundalk to win60% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.19
Dundalk vs Waterford preview and prediction
The match
Waterford travel to Oriel Park in the Premier Division on Friday 13 March (20:45 WAT) to face Dundalk. Dundalk are 6th with 45 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Waterford sit 7th on 43 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Dundalk's last 5: DLDDD Most recently they drew with Galway United 2–2 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Waterford's last 4: LLDL Most recently they lost to Bohemians 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Dundalk arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.8 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.8 for Dundalk and 0.9 for Waterford. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Dundalk to win at 1.90 – 60% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Dundalk 1–1 Waterford. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Dundalk60%fair 1.68 · @1.90
Draw20%fair 4.99 · @3.50
Waterford20%fair 4.91 · @3.85
2.72Expected goals
1.80Dundalk xG
0.92Waterford xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: Dundalk 1.8 – 0.9 Waterford expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Dundalk to win
60%
1.68
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.76
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
75%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
51%
1.95
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
70%
1.42
1.36
Half-time result
Dundalk ahead at half-time
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Dundalk / FT Dundalk
36%
2.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.19
–
Form
Dundalk – last 5
DLDDD
6 Mar
@ Galway United
2–2
D
27 Feb
@ St Patrick's Athl.
0–4
L
23 Feb
@ Shamrock Rovers
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs Drogheda United
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Derry City
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
80%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Waterford – last 4
LLDL
6 Mar
vs Bohemians
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ Derry City
2–4
L
20 Feb
vs Sligo Rovers
0–0
D
13 Feb
@ Drogheda United
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Dundalk and Waterford.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Dundalk vs Waterford?
On our numbers Dundalk have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Waterford 20%.
How many goals will there be in Dundalk vs Waterford?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dundalk vs Waterford?
Our predicted score is Dundalk 1–1 Waterford, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Dundalk vs Waterford?
Dundalk vs Waterford (Premier Division) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Oriel Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
