Value bet: Shelbourne to win @ 3.25 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDerry City to win ✗43% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.24
Derry City vs Shelbourne preview and prediction
The match
Shelbourne travel to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in the Premier Division on Friday 13 March (20:45 WAT) to face Derry City. Derry City are 5th with 48 points from 36 games (in the top half), while Shelbourne sit 4th on 49 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Derry City's last 4: LWLD Most recently they lost to Shamrock Rovers 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Shelbourne's last 4: DLWD Most recently they drew with Shamrock Rovers 2–2 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Derry City and 1.3 for Shelbourne. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derry City 43%, draw 22%, Shelbourne 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Shelbourne to win at 3.25 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Derry City 1–1 Shelbourne. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derry City43%fair 2.30 · @2.20
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.25
Shelbourne34%fair 2.90 · @3.25
2.83Expected goals
1.51Derry City xG
1.31Shelbourne xG
60%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Derry City 1.5 – 1.3 Shelbourne expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derry City to win✗
43%
2.30
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.65
1.75 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derry City / FT Derry City✗
25%
4.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.24
–
Form
Derry City – last 4
LWLD
6 Mar
@ Shamrock Rovers
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Waterford
4–2
W
20 Feb
vs Bohemians
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Dundalk
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Shelbourne – last 4
DLWD
9 Mar
vs Shamrock Rovers
2–2
D
6 Mar
vs St Patrick's Athl.
2–3
L
27 Feb
@ Drogheda United
2–1
W
20 Feb
vs Galway United
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derry City and Shelbourne.
What is the prediction for Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Derry City vs Shelbourne?
On our numbers Derry City have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Shelbourne 34%.
How many goals will there be in Derry City vs Shelbourne?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Our predicted score is Derry City 1–1 Shelbourne, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Derry City vs Shelbourne (Premier Division) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
