Value bet: Derry City to win @ 3.25 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultShamrock Rovers to win ✓42% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓9% · fair 11.13
Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City preview and prediction
The match
Shamrock Rovers host Derry City in the Premier Division on Friday 6 March, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Tallaght Stadium. Shamrock Rovers are 1st with 68 points from 36 games (top of the table), while Derry City sit 5th on 48 points (in the top half). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Shamrock Rovers's last 3: LDW Most recently they lost to Bohemians 2–3 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Derry City's last 3: WLD Most recently they beat Waterford 4–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Shamrock Rovers and 1.3 for Derry City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Shamrock Rovers 42%, draw 24%, Derry City 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Derry City to win at 3.25 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.44, above our fair price of 1.40, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Shamrock Rovers 1–1 Derry City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Shamrock Rovers42%fair 2.40 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.20
Derry City34%fair 2.94 · @3.25
2.81Expected goals
1.49Shamrock Rovers xG
1.32Derry City xG
57%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Shamrock Rovers 1.5 – 1.3 Derry City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Shamrock Rovers to win✓
42%
2.40
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Shamrock Rovers / FT Shamrock Rovers✗
24%
4.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
9%
11.13
–
Form
Shamrock Rovers – last 3
LDW
27 Feb
@ Bohemians
2–3
L
23 Feb
vs Dundalk
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs St Patrick's Athl.
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Derry City – last 3
WLD
27 Feb
vs Waterford
4–2
W
20 Feb
vs Bohemians
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Dundalk
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City.
What is the prediction for Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
On our numbers Shamrock Rovers have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Derry City 34%.
How many goals will there be in Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Our predicted score is Shamrock Rovers 1–1 Derry City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City (Premier Division) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Tallaght Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
