Double chanceGuadalajara Chivas or draw ✓89% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗12% · fair 8.48
Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas preview and prediction
The match
Guadalajara Chivas travel to Estadio Victoria in the Liga MX on Thursday 23 April (04:10 WAT) to face Necaxa. Necaxa are 17th with 13 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Guadalajara Chivas sit 3rd on 30 points (in the top four). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Necaxa's last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Tigres UANL 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Guadalajara Chivas's last 5: WLDWW Most recently they beat Puebla 5–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 3.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Guadalajara Chivas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 0.8 for Necaxa and 2.3 for Guadalajara Chivas. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 60% and both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Safer route: Guadalajara Chivas or draw (89%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Guadalajara Chivas to win – a 69% chance at odds of 1.58, above our fair price of 1.45, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Necaxa 0–2 Guadalajara Chivas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Necaxa11%fair 9.25 · @5.00
Draw20%fair 4.94 · @4.20
Guadalajara Chivas69%fair 1.45 · @1.58
3.08Expected goals
0.81Necaxa xG
2.26Guadalajara Chivas xG
56%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–212%
0–110%
1–210%
0–39%
1–18%
1–37%
From our goals model: Necaxa 0.8 – 2.3 Guadalajara Chivas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guadalajara Chivas to win✗
69%
1.45
1.58 ▲
Double chance
Guadalajara Chivas or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.55
Half-time result
Guadalajara Chivas ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guadalajara Chivas / FT Guadalajara Chivas✗
46%
2.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
12%
8.48
–
Form
Necaxa – last 6
DLWWDL
19 Apr
vs Tigres UANL
1–1
D
12 Apr
@ Club Queretaro
1–3
L
4 Apr
vs Mazatlán
2–1
W
21 Mar
vs Club Tijuana
3–0
W
14 Mar
@ Puebla
0–0
D
7 Mar
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Guadalajara Chivas – last 6
WLDWWW
19 Apr
vs Puebla
5–0
W
12 Apr
@ Tigres UANL
1–4
L
6 Apr
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2–2
D
22 Mar
@ Monterrey
3–2
W
19 Mar
vs Leon
5–0
W
15 Mar
vs Santos Laguna
3–0
W
3.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Necaxa and Guadalajara Chivas.
What is the prediction for Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our pick is Guadalajara Chivas to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.58.
Who will win Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas?
On our numbers Necaxa have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Guadalajara Chivas 69%.
How many goals will there be in Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our predicted score is Necaxa 0–2 Guadalajara Chivas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 04:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Victoria.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mazatlán4