Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Tigres UANL to win @ 1.90 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTigres UANL to win ✗57% · @1.90
Double chanceTigres UANL or draw ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.26
Atlas vs Tigres UANL preview and prediction
The match
The Liga MX sees Atlas take on Tigres UANL on Thursday 23 April, kicking off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Jalisco. Atlas are 5th with 27 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Tigres UANL sit 15th on 15 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Atlas's last 5: WDLDD Most recently they beat Santos Laguna 1–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tigres UANL's last 5: DLWWL Most recently they drew with Necaxa 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.9 for Atlas and 1.7 for Tigres UANL. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Tigres UANL to win at 1.90 – 57% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Tigres UANL or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Atlas 0–1 Tigres UANL. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atlas21%fair 4.84 · @4.00
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.40
Tigres UANL57%fair 1.75 · @1.90
2.66Expected goals
0.93Atlas xG
1.74Tigres UANL xG
53%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–112%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–07%
1–06%
From our goals model: Atlas 0.9 – 1.7 Tigres UANL expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tigres UANL to win✗
57%
1.75
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Tigres UANL or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tigres UANL / FT Tigres UANL✗
35%
2.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.26
–
Form
Atlas – last 6
WDLDDL
20 Apr
@ Santos Laguna
1–0
W
12 Apr
vs Monterrey
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Leon
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Club Queretaro
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Toluca
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Tigres UANL – last 6
DLWWLL
19 Apr
@ Necaxa
1–1
D
16 Apr
@ Seattle Sounders
1–3
L
12 Apr
vs Guadalajara Chivas
4–1
W
9 Apr
vs Seattle Sounders
2–0
W
4 Apr
@ Club Tijuana
0–1
L
23 Mar
@ FC Juarez
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlas and Tigres UANL.
Our pick is Tigres UANL or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Atlas vs Tigres UANL?
On our numbers Atlas have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Tigres UANL 57%.
How many goals will there be in Atlas vs Tigres UANL?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlas vs Tigres UANL?
Our predicted score is Atlas 0–1 Tigres UANL, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atlas vs Tigres UANL?
Atlas vs Tigres UANL (Liga MX) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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