Good pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.41 · Lost ✗
7/10Rating
1.41Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca to win ✗68% · @1.41
Double chanceToluca or draw ✗87% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.13
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗11% · fair 9.01
Mazatlán vs Toluca preview and prediction
The match
Mazatlán host Toluca in the Liga MX on Thursday 23 April, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio de Mazatlan.
Form guide
Mazatlán's last 5: DLDLW Most recently they drew with Club Queretaro 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Toluca's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Club America 1–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 0.9 for Mazatlán and 2.3 for Toluca. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 63% and both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mazatlán 13%, draw 20%, Toluca 68%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.60.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Toluca to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.41. Predicted score: Mazatlán 0–2 Toluca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mazatlán13%fair 8.00 · @6.25
Draw20%fair 5.13 · @5.00
Toluca68%fair 1.47 · @1.41
3.13Expected goals
0.88Mazatlán xG
2.26Toluca xG
57%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
0–110%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Mazatlán 0.9 – 2.3 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✗
68%
1.47
1.41
Double chance
Toluca or draw✗
87%
1.14
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.13
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
58%
1.71
1.70
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
45%
2.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
11%
9.01
–
Form
Mazatlán – last 6
DLDLWL
18 Apr
vs Club Queretaro
1–1
D
4 Apr
@ Necaxa
1–2
L
21 Mar
vs Cruz Azul
1–1
D
16 Mar
@ Club America
0–2
L
7 Mar
vs Leon
4–2
W
4 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
1–4
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 6
LWDWLD
19 Apr
@ Club America
1–2
L
16 Apr
@ Los Angeles Galaxy
3–0
W
13 Apr
vs Atletico San Luis
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs Los Angeles Galaxy
4–2
W
5 Apr
@ Club Queretaro
0–1
L
23 Mar
@ Pachuca
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mazatlán and Toluca.
Our pick is Toluca to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.41.
Who will win Mazatlán vs Toluca?
On our numbers Mazatlán have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Toluca 68%.
How many goals will there be in Mazatlán vs Toluca?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mazatlán vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Mazatlán 0–2 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Mazatlán vs Toluca?
Mazatlán vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Mazatlan.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
