Club Queretaro host Toluca in the Liga MX on Sunday 5 April, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio La Corregidora. Club Queretaro are 12th with 20 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Toluca sit 4th on 27 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Club Queretaro's last 5: DDLLD Most recently they drew with Atlas 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Toluca's last 5: DWDLW Most recently they drew with Pachuca 1–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Toluca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.7 for Club Queretaro and 2.1 for Toluca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Club Queretaro 11%, draw 21%, Toluca 68%.
Safer route: Toluca or draw (89%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.77.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Club Queretaro 0–2 Toluca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Club Queretaro11%fair 9.45 · @5.70
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @4.10
Toluca68%fair 1.46 · @1.54
2.81Expected goals
0.72Club Queretaro xG
2.09Toluca xG
57%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–213%
0–113%
1–29%
0–39%
1–19%
1–37%
From our goals model: Club Queretaro 0.7 – 2.1 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✗
68%
1.46
1.54 ▲
Double chance
Toluca or draw✗
89%
1.12
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.42
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✗
50%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
45%
2.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
13%
7.59
–
Form
Club Queretaro – last 6
DDLLDL
22 Mar
@ Atlas
0–0
D
16 Mar
@ Tigres UANL
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs Club America
1–2
L
5 Mar
@ Monterrey
0–4
L
28 Feb
vs Santos Laguna
2–2
D
15 Feb
@ Atletico San Luis
0–3
L
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 6
DWDLWW
23 Mar
@ Pachuca
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs San Diego
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Atlas
1–1
D
12 Mar
@ San Diego
2–3
L
9 Mar
vs FC Juarez
3–1
W
4 Mar
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3–2
W
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Club Queretaro and Toluca.
What is the prediction for Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
On our numbers Club Queretaro have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Toluca 68%.
How many goals will there be in Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Club Queretaro 0–2 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
Club Queretaro vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Corregidora.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
