Atlas travel to Estadio Leon in the Liga MX on Sunday 5 April (02:06 WAT) to face Leon. Leon are 7th with 23 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Atlas sit 5th on 27 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Leon's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Atletico San Luis 2–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Atlas's last 5: DDLWL Most recently they drew with Club Queretaro 0–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Leon and 1.3 for Atlas. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leon 44%, draw 22%, Atlas 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Leon 1–1 Atlas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leon44%fair 2.29 · @2.26
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.35
Atlas35%fair 2.89 · @3.05
2.80Expected goals
1.50Leon xG
1.30Atlas xG
60%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Leon 1.5 – 1.3 Atlas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leon to win✓
44%
2.29
2.26
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.91
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leon / FT Leon✓
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.94
–
Form
Leon – last 6
WLLLWW
22 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
2–1
W
19 Mar
@ Guadalajara Chivas
0–5
L
15 Mar
vs Club Tijuana
0–3
L
7 Mar
@ Mazatlán
2–4
L
1 Mar
vs Necaxa
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Santos Laguna
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Atlas – last 6
DDLWLW
22 Mar
vs Club Queretaro
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Toluca
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
1–2
L
5 Mar
vs Club Tijuana
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ FC Juarez
1–3
L
22 Feb
vs Atletico San Luis
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leon and Atlas.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Leon vs Atlas?
On our numbers Leon have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atlas 35%.
How many goals will there be in Leon vs Atlas?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leon vs Atlas?
Our predicted score is Leon 1–1 Atlas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Leon vs Atlas?
Leon vs Atlas (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 02:06 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Leon.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
