Value bet: Cruz Azul to win @ 1.87 – our chance 63% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCruz Azul to win ✗63% · @1.87
Double chanceEither team to win ✓84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.76
Cruz Azul vs Pachuca preview and prediction
The match
The Liga MX sees Cruz Azul take on Pachuca on Sunday 5 April, kicking off at 02:05 (WAT) at Estadio Cuauhtemoc. Cruz Azul are 1st with 32 points from 16 games (top of the table), while Pachuca sit 8th on 22 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Cruz Azul's last 5: DDDWW Most recently they drew with Mazatlán 1–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Pachuca's last 5: DDWWL Most recently they drew with Toluca 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.9 for Cruz Azul and 0.9 for Pachuca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Cruz Azul to win at 1.87 – 63% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Cruz Azul 2–0 Pachuca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cruz Azul63%fair 1.59 · @1.87
Draw16%fair 6.43 · @3.80
Pachuca21%fair 4.67 · @3.70
2.80Expected goals
1.88Cruz Azul xG
0.92Pachuca xG
58%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Cruz Azul 1.9 – 0.9 Pachuca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cruz Azul to win✗
63%
1.59
1.87 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
84%
1.18
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.45
Half-time result
Cruz Azul ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cruz Azul / FT Cruz Azul✗
38%
2.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.76
–
Form
Cruz Azul – last 6
DDDWWW
21 Mar
@ Mazatlán
1–1
D
18 Mar
vs Monterrey
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2–2
D
11 Mar
@ Monterrey
3–2
W
8 Mar
vs Atletico San Luis
3–0
W
4 Mar
@ Santos Laguna
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Pachuca – last 6
DDWWLW
23 Mar
vs Toluca
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Puebla
2–1
W
4 Mar
vs Necaxa
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ Mazatlán
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Tigres UANL
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cruz Azul and Pachuca.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Cruz Azul vs Pachuca?
On our numbers Cruz Azul have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Pachuca 21%.
How many goals will there be in Cruz Azul vs Pachuca?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cruz Azul vs Pachuca?
Our predicted score is Cruz Azul 2–0 Pachuca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Cruz Azul vs Pachuca?
Cruz Azul vs Pachuca (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 02:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Cuauhtemoc.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
