Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca to win ✓56% · @1.81
Double chanceToluca or draw ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.53
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Toluca preview and prediction
The match
U.N.A.M. - Pumas host Toluca in the Liga MX on Wednesday 4 March, with kick-off at 04:10 (WAT) at Estadio Olimpico Universitario. U.N.A.M. - Pumas are 11th with 21 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Toluca sit 4th on 27 points (in the top four).
Form guide
U.N.A.M. - Pumas's last 3: DWW Most recently they drew with Club Tijuana 1–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Toluca's last 3: WWW Most recently they beat Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Toluca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 2.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.3 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas and 1.8 for Toluca. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations.
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–1 Toluca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
U.N.A.M. - Pumas22%fair 4.50 · @3.95
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.80
Toluca56%fair 1.80 · @1.81
3.06Expected goals
1.28U.N.A.M. - Pumas xG
1.78Toluca xG
63%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
0–27%
2–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1.3 – 1.8 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Toluca
Attack vs Liga MX average
+6%
+31%
Goals conceded vs average
-2%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.56
1.78
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✓
56%
1.80
1.81
Double chance
Toluca or draw✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.60
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.57
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
30%
3.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.53
–
Form
U.N.A.M. - Pumas – last 3
DWW
28 Feb
@ Club Tijuana
1–1
D
23 Feb
vs Monterrey
2–0
W
14 Feb
@ Puebla
3–2
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 3
WWW
1 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Necaxa
3–0
W
14 Feb
vs Club Tijuana
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Toluca.
What is the prediction for U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Toluca?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Toluca?
On our numbers U.N.A.M. - Pumas have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Toluca 56%.
How many goals will there be in U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Toluca?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Toluca?
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 04:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico Universitario.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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