Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Pachuca to win @ 1.77 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPachuca to win ✓60% · @1.77
Double chancePachuca or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.40
Pachuca vs Necaxa preview and prediction
The match
The Liga MX sees Pachuca take on Necaxa on Wednesday 4 March, kicking off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo. Pachuca are 8th with 22 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Necaxa sit 17th on 13 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Pachuca's last 3: LWW Most recently they lost to Mazatlán 0–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Necaxa's last 3: LLW Most recently they lost to Leon 1–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Pachuca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.9 for Pachuca and 0.9 for Necaxa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Pachuca 60%, draw 22%, Necaxa 18%.
Safer route: Pachuca or draw (82%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Pachuca to win at 1.77 – 60% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Pachuca or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Pachuca 1–0 Necaxa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pachuca60%fair 1.66 · @1.77
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.70
Necaxa18%fair 5.55 · @4.30
2.78Expected goals
1.92Pachuca xG
0.86Necaxa xG
59%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Pachuca 1.9 – 0.9 Necaxa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Pachuca
Necaxa
Attack vs Liga MX average
+17%
-27%
Goals conceded vs average
-18%
+8%
Our expected goals here
2.02
0.84
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pachuca to win✓
60%
1.66
1.77 ▲
Double chance
Pachuca or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.33
Half-time result
Pachuca ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pachuca / FT Pachuca✓
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.40
–
Form
Pachuca – last 3
LWW
28 Feb
@ Mazatlán
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Tigres UANL
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Atlas
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Necaxa – last 3
LLW
1 Mar
@ Leon
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Toluca
0–3
L
15 Feb
@ FC Juarez
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pachuca and Necaxa.
Our pick is Pachuca or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Pachuca vs Necaxa?
On our numbers Pachuca have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Necaxa 18%.
How many goals will there be in Pachuca vs Necaxa?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pachuca vs Necaxa?
Our predicted score is Pachuca 1–0 Necaxa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Pachuca vs Necaxa?
Pachuca vs Necaxa (Liga MX) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mazatlán1