Value bet: Cruz Azul to win @ 2.58 – our chance 42% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCruz Azul to win ✓42% · @2.58
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.35
Monterrey vs Cruz Azul preview and prediction
The match
Cruz Azul travel to Estadio BBVA in the Liga MX on Sunday 1 March (02:05 WAT) to face Monterrey. Monterrey are 10th with 21 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Cruz Azul sit 1st on 32 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Cruz Azul's last 3: WWW Most recently they beat Guadalajara Chivas 2–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.4 for Monterrey and 1.5 for Cruz Azul. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 55% and both teams to score at 63%.
Value angle: Cruz Azul to win at 2.58 – 42% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Monterrey 1–1 Cruz Azul. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Monterrey35%fair 2.85 · @2.58
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.40
Cruz Azul42%fair 2.39 · @2.58
2.93Expected goals
1.39Monterrey xG
1.54Cruz Azul xG
63%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: Monterrey 1.4 – 1.5 Cruz Azul expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cruz Azul to win✓
42%
2.39
2.58 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.60
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.40
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cruz Azul / FT Cruz Azul✓
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.35
–
Form
Monterrey – last 2
LW
23 Feb
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Leon
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Cruz Azul – last 3
WWW
22 Feb
vs Guadalajara Chivas
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Tigres UANL
2–1
W
13 Feb
vs Vancouver FC
5–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monterrey and Cruz Azul.
What is the prediction for Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?
On our numbers Monterrey have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cruz Azul 42%.
How many goals will there be in Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?
Our predicted score is Monterrey 1–1 Cruz Azul, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?
Monterrey vs Cruz Azul (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 02:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio BBVA.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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