Value bet: Necaxa to win @ 3.25 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeon to win ✓42% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 11.30
Leon vs Necaxa preview and prediction
The match
Leon host Necaxa in the Liga MX on Sunday 1 March, with kick-off at 02:06 (WAT) at Estadio Leon. Leon are 7th with 23 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Necaxa sit 17th on 13 points (in the bottom three).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Leon and 1.3 for Necaxa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 62%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leon 42%, draw 23%, Necaxa 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Necaxa to win at 3.25 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Leon 1–1 Necaxa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leon42%fair 2.36 · @2.12
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.45
Necaxa35%fair 2.88 · @3.25
2.83Expected goals
1.50Leon xG
1.33Necaxa xG
62%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Leon 1.5 – 1.3 Necaxa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leon to win✓
42%
2.36
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.60
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leon / FT Leon✗
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
11.30
–
Form
Leon – last 2
WL
22 Feb
vs Santos Laguna
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Monterrey
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Necaxa – last 2
LW
22 Feb
vs Toluca
0–3
L
15 Feb
@ FC Juarez
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leon and Necaxa.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Leon vs Necaxa?
On our numbers Leon have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Necaxa 35%.
How many goals will there be in Leon vs Necaxa?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leon vs Necaxa?
Our predicted score is Leon 1–1 Necaxa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Leon vs Necaxa?
Leon vs Necaxa (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 02:06 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Leon.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
