Value bet: Guadalajara Chivas to win @ 3.80 – our chance 29% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca to win ✓49% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.04
Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas preview and prediction
The match
Toluca host Guadalajara Chivas in the Liga MX on Sunday 1 March, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Toluca are 4th with 27 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Guadalajara Chivas sit 3rd on 30 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.6 for Toluca and 1.2 for Guadalajara Chivas. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 60%.
Value angle: Guadalajara Chivas to win at 3.80 – 29% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Toluca 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toluca49%fair 2.05 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.25
Guadalajara Chivas29%fair 3.43 · @3.80
2.78Expected goals
1.61Toluca xG
1.17Guadalajara Chivas xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
2–08%
0–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Toluca 1.6 – 1.2 Guadalajara Chivas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✓
49%
2.05
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✓
29%
3.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.04
–
Form
Toluca – last 2
WW
22 Feb
@ Necaxa
3–0
W
14 Feb
vs Club Tijuana
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Guadalajara Chivas – last 2
LW
22 Feb
@ Cruz Azul
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs Club America
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca and Guadalajara Chivas.
What is the prediction for Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas?
On our numbers Toluca have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Guadalajara Chivas 29%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our predicted score is Toluca 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
