Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Atletico San Luis to win @ 1.90 – our chance 65% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico San Luis to win ✗65% · @1.90
Double chanceAtletico San Luis or draw ✗87% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 8.83
Atletico San Luis vs Puebla preview and prediction
The match
The Liga MX sees Atletico San Luis take on Puebla on Sunday 1 March, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Alfonso Lastras Ramirez. Atletico San Luis are 14th with 19 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Puebla sit 13th on 19 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for Atletico San Luis and 0.9 for Puebla. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atletico San Luis 65%, draw 21%, Puebla 13%.
Safer route: Atletico San Luis or draw (87%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Atletico San Luis to win at 1.90 – 65% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atletico San Luis or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Atletico San Luis 2–0 Puebla. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico San Luis65%fair 1.53 · @1.90
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.50
Puebla13%fair 7.43 · @3.90
2.98Expected goals
2.12Atletico San Luis xG
0.87Puebla xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Atletico San Luis 2.1 – 0.9 Puebla expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico San Luis to win✗
65%
1.53
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Atletico San Luis or draw✗
87%
1.16
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.35
Half-time result
Atletico San Luis ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico San Luis / FT Atletico San Luis✗
43%
2.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
8.83
–
Form
Atletico San Luis – last 2
LW
22 Feb
@ Atlas
2–3
L
15 Feb
vs Club Queretaro
3–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Puebla – last 2
LL
21 Feb
vs Club America
0–4
L
14 Feb
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2–3
L
1.0Scored / game
3.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico San Luis and Puebla.
What is the prediction for Atletico San Luis vs Puebla?
Our pick is Atletico San Luis or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Atletico San Luis vs Puebla?
On our numbers Atletico San Luis have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Puebla 13%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico San Luis vs Puebla?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico San Luis vs Puebla?
Our predicted score is Atletico San Luis 2–0 Puebla, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Atletico San Luis vs Puebla?
Atletico San Luis vs Puebla (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Alfonso Lastras Ramirez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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