Value bet: Cruz Azul to win @ 2.48 – our chance 43% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCruz Azul to win ✓43% · @2.48
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.94
Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara Chivas preview and prediction
The match
Cruz Azul host Guadalajara Chivas in the Liga MX on Sunday 22 February, with kick-off at 04:05 (WAT) at Estadio Azteca. Cruz Azul are 1st with 32 points from 16 games (top of the table), while Guadalajara Chivas sit 3rd on 30 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Cruz Azul and 1.3 for Guadalajara Chivas. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Cruz Azul to win at 2.48 – 43% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Cruz Azul 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cruz Azul43%fair 2.30 · @2.48
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.30
Guadalajara Chivas35%fair 2.89 · @2.74
2.79Expected goals
1.49Cruz Azul xG
1.30Guadalajara Chivas xG
59%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Cruz Azul 1.5 – 1.3 Guadalajara Chivas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cruz Azul to win✓
43%
2.30
2.48 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cruz Azul / FT Cruz Azul✓
25%
4.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.94
–
Form
Cruz Azul – last 2
WW
15 Feb
vs Tigres UANL
2–1
W
13 Feb
vs Vancouver FC
5–0
W
3.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Guadalajara Chivas – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs Club America
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cruz Azul and Guadalajara Chivas.
What is the prediction for Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara Chivas?
On our numbers Cruz Azul have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Guadalajara Chivas 35%.
How many goals will there be in Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara Chivas?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our predicted score is Cruz Azul 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 04:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Azteca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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