Necaxa host Toluca in the Liga MX on Sunday 22 February, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Victoria. Necaxa are 17th with 13 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Toluca sit 4th on 27 points (in the top four). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 0.9 for Necaxa and 1.9 for Toluca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Necaxa 18%, draw 19%, Toluca 62%.
Safer route: Toluca or draw (82%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.77.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Necaxa 0–2 Toluca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Necaxa18%fair 5.41 · @5.30
Draw19%fair 5.15 · @3.75
Toluca62%fair 1.61 · @1.63
2.87Expected goals
0.93Necaxa xG
1.94Toluca xG
55%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–111%
0–211%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%
From our goals model: Necaxa 0.9 – 1.9 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✓
62%
1.61
1.63
Double chance
Toluca or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.80
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.38
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.08
–
Form
Necaxa – last 1
W
15 Feb
@ FC Juarez
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 1
W
14 Feb
vs Club Tijuana
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Necaxa and Toluca.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Necaxa vs Toluca?
On our numbers Necaxa have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Toluca 62%.
How many goals will there be in Necaxa vs Toluca?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Necaxa vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Necaxa 0–2 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Necaxa vs Toluca?
Necaxa vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Victoria.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mazatlán1