Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Flamengo to win @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFlamengo to win ✗60% · @1.80
Double chanceFlamengo or draw ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.42
Santos vs Flamengo preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Santos take on Flamengo on Thursday 8 October, kicking off at 23:30 (WAT) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira. Santos are 9th with 47 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Flamengo sit 1st on 76 points (top of the table). A gap of 29 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Santos's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Sao Paulo 2–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Flamengo's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat RB Bragantino 2–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.0 for Santos and 1.9 for Flamengo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santos 19%, draw 21%, Flamengo 60%.
Safer route: Flamengo or draw (81%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Flamengo to win at 1.80 – 60% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Flamengo or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Santos 0–1 Flamengo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santos19%fair 5.15 · @3.90
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.50
Flamengo60%fair 1.68 · @1.80
2.89Expected goals
0.98Santos xG
1.91Flamengo xG
58%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–111%
1–110%
0–210%
1–210%
0–36%
1–36%
From our goals model: Santos 1.0 – 1.9 Flamengo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✗
60%
1.68
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Flamengo or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Flamengo ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✗
37%
2.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.42
–
Form
Santos – last 6
WWLWWW
3 Oct
@ Sao Paulo
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ Remo
2–1
W
16 Sep
@ Atletico-MG
2–4
L
13 Sep
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
9 Sep
vs Atletico-MG
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Internacional
3–2
W
2.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Flamengo – last 6
WDWWWW
20 Sep
vs RB Bragantino
2–1
W
18 Sep
vs Independiente del Valle
1–1
D
13 Sep
vs Corinthians
2–1
W
11 Sep
@ Independiente del Valle
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Remo
1–0
W
2 Sep
vs Mirassol
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santos and Flamengo.
Our pick is Flamengo or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Santos vs Flamengo?
On our numbers Santos have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Flamengo 60%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Flamengo?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Flamengo?
Our predicted score is Santos 0–1 Flamengo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Santos vs Flamengo?
Santos vs Flamengo (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 8 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
