Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultCruzeiro to win ✓66% · @1.75
Double chanceCruzeiro or draw ✓89% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.16
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo preview and prediction
The match
Cruzeiro host Sao Paulo in the Serie A on Thursday 8 October, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estádio Mineirão. Cruzeiro are 3rd with 60 points from 34 games (in the top four), while Sao Paulo sit 10th on 44 points (in the top half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Cruzeiro's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Vitoria 3–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Sao Paulo's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to Santos 1–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Cruzeiro and 0.7 for Sao Paulo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cruzeiro 66%, draw 23%, Sao Paulo 11%.
Safer route: Cruzeiro or draw (89%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cruzeiro to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.52, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cruzeiro 1–0 Sao Paulo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cruzeiro66%fair 1.52 · @1.75
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.40
Sao Paulo11%fair 8.71 · @4.50
2.63Expected goals
1.94Cruzeiro xG
0.69Sao Paulo xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–07%
From our goals model: Cruzeiro 1.9 – 0.7 Sao Paulo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cruzeiro to win✓
66%
1.52
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Cruzeiro or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Cruzeiro ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cruzeiro / FT Cruzeiro✓
43%
2.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.16
–
Form
Cruzeiro – last 6
WLWLLD
20 Sep
@ Vitoria
3–1
W
13 Sep
@ Santos
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–1
W
2 Sep
@ Atletico-MG
1–2
L
30 Aug
@ Vasco DA Gama
1–3
L
26 Aug
vs Atletico-MG
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Sao Paulo – last 6
LWDLLW
3 Oct
vs Santos
1–2
L
20 Sep
vs Internacional
1–0
W
16 Sep
vs Boca Juniors
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Palmeiras
0–2
L
9 Sep
@ Boca Juniors
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Atletico-MG
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo.
Our pick is Cruzeiro to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
On our numbers Cruzeiro have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sao Paulo 11%.
How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
Our predicted score is Cruzeiro 1–0 Sao Paulo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 8 October 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Mineirão.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
