Serie A · Brazil · Estádio Nilton SantosBotafogo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Botafogo 1.4 – 1.5 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama on our numbers – 36% for the home side, 40% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Botafogo have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.8 per game. Vasco DA Gama have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.3 conceded. Vasco DA Gama come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.4 for Botafogo, 1.5 for Vasco DA Gama). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Botafogo have won 1, Vasco DA Gama have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 63% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.62 is close to our fair price of 1.60.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Vasco DA Gama to win ✓ | 40% | 2.51 | 2.45 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 63% | 1.60 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.78 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.51 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 40% | 2.49 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Vasco DA Gama / FT Vasco DA Gama ✓ | 23% | 4.31 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✓ | 9% | 11.62 | – |
Form
Botafogo – last 6
| 19 Sep | @ Mirassol | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs Gremio | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs RB Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Palmeiras | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | @ Flamengo | 0–3 | L |
| 25 Aug | vs Atletico Paranaense | 2–3 | L |
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs Coritiba | 5–0 | W |
| 15 Sep | vs Santa Fe | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Gremio | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Sep | @ Santa Fe | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Fluminense | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Sep | @ Vitoria | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 5 Apr 2026 | Vasco DA Gama v Botafogo | 1–2 |
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Botafogo have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vasco DA Gama 40%.
How many goals will there be in Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
When is Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 8 October 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.