Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPalmeiras to win ✓63% · @1.65
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓86% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.62
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo preview and prediction
The match
Palmeiras host Sao Paulo in the Serie A on Saturday 12 September, with kick-off at 22:30 (WAT) at Allianz Parque. Palmeiras are 2nd with 73 points from 34 games (in the top four), while Sao Paulo sit 10th on 44 points (in the top half). A gap of 29 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Palmeiras's last 5: WDDDW Most recently they beat LDU de Quito 1–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sao Paulo's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Boca Juniors 0–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 March 2026, finished Sao Paulo 0–1 Palmeiras. Across their last 2 meetings Palmeiras have won 2, Sao Paulo 0, with 0 draws and 2.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Palmeiras and 0.7 for Sao Paulo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Palmeiras 63%, draw 23%, Sao Paulo 14%.
Safer route: Palmeiras or draw (86%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.83.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Palmeiras to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.65, above our fair price of 1.60, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Palmeiras 1–0 Sao Paulo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Palmeiras63%fair 1.60 · @1.65
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.50
Sao Paulo14%fair 6.94 · @5.00
2.45Expected goals
1.75Palmeiras xG
0.70Sao Paulo xG
48%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Palmeiras 1.8 – 0.7 Sao Paulo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Our pick is Palmeiras to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
On our numbers Palmeiras have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sao Paulo 14%.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Our predicted score is Palmeiras 1–0 Sao Paulo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Allianz Parque.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
